Post 
Share 
Share 
Post 
Pin 
Send 
Send Prices are up, and every headline says “tariffs”. But two sets of tariffs are in the news, and only one of them can show up on a store shelf. This guide explains which one reaches your cart, how to tell in five seconds, what the last round did to prices, and what it means for a household budget.
Where things stand
As of September 9, 2026. Figures come from Finance Canada, the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada. Sources are listed at the end.
- US tariffs on Canadian goods. Since August 22, 2026, the United States charges 50% on about $27.6 billion of Canadian exports, including dairy, alcohol, furniture, clothing and building materials. That is on top of the steel, aluminum, auto and lumber tariffs already in place.
- Canada’s counter-measures on US goods. Since September 8, 2026, Canada charges 15%, 25% or 50% on a matching $27.6 billion of products made in the United States, more than 700 tariff lines in all. The rate on each product matches the US rate on the same Canadian good. Fish and seafood were on the first draft of the list and were removed on August 26.
- Inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.0% over the year to July 2026. Groceries were up 3.1%. Gasoline was up 25.7%, which comes from oil and shipping, not tariffs. Without gasoline, inflation sat at 2.2%. August figures land on September 14.
- Interest rates. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold. Next decision: October 28.
- Trade talks. Canada-US negotiations have been paused since August.
The official list: Complete list of US products subject to counter-tariffs (Finance Canada).
Two sets of tariffs, two different effects
A tariff is a tax charged at the border on an imported product. The importer pays it, then decides how much of it to pass on. Which border, and which importer, is the whole difference between the two sets in the news.
US tariffs on Canadian goods
These are charged by the United States on products entering the US from Canada. The US importer pays them. You do not pay them at a Canadian checkout.
The effect on Canadians is real but indirect. Canadian exporters sell less, or sell for less. That reaches jobs in the exposed sectors first: steel, aluminum, lumber, autos, and the dairy, furniture and clothing producers added in August. It can also weigh on the Canadian dollar, which makes anything priced in US dollars more expensive for everyone.
Canada’s counter-measures on US goods
These are charged by Canada on products entering Canada from the US. Finance Canada calls them a surtax. The Canadian importer pays it at the border, and this is the one that can show up on a store shelf.
Two limits matter. The surtax applies only to products that originate in the United States, meaning goods that would be marked as US-made under the CUSMA rules. And it applies only to the products on Finance Canada’s list. A US-made product that is not on the list is not affected. A Canadian, Mexican or European version of a listed product is not affected either.
The five-second test
A higher price is not automatically “the tariffs”. Before you blame them, check the country of origin on the label. If the product is not made in the US, the counter-measures did not touch it. If it is made in the US, check whether its category is on the list. The next two sections cover both steps.
| US tariffs on Canadian goods | Canada’s counter-measures on US goods | |
|---|---|---|
| Who pays at the border | The US importer | The Canadian importer |
| Where you feel it | Jobs in exporting sectors, then the loonie | The shelf price of listed US-made products |
| How fast | Months, through the job market and the exchange rate | Weeks to months, as importers pass it on |
| What you can check | Nothing at the store | The country of origin and the list |
What’s actually on Canada’s list
Finance Canada publishes the list by tariff item, which is how customs brokers read it, not how shoppers do. Here is the same list in categories you would recognize at a store, with what each one means at the shelf. Rates are 15%, 25% or 50% depending on the item, so check the list for a specific product.
- Dairy. Milk powder, cream products, whey and cheese, including cheddar and specialty cheeses from the US. Most cheese sold in Canada is Canadian, so the effect is concentrated on imported US brands.
- Honey and molasses. US-origin only.
- Paper products. Toilet paper, facial tissue, paper towels, napkins, envelopes and cardboard boxes made in the US. Many store brands are made in Canada, so the label matters here more than anywhere.
- Appliances. Gas stoves and ranges, radiators and other household appliances of US origin.
- Kitchenware. Plastic tableware and kitchen items, glass containers and jars.
- Clothing and textiles. Dresses, trousers, suits, jackets, t-shirts, sweaters, gloves, carpets and rugs made in the US.
- Furniture. US-made furniture, matching the US tariff on Canadian furniture.
- Cosmetics. Beauty and cosmetic products of US origin.
- Steel and aluminum goods. Raw metal and products made from it, now at 50%. This reaches consumers through things like tools, some hardware and building materials rather than through a single product.
- Farm equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, electronics. Mostly business inputs. You feel these later, if at all, through the price of what those businesses sell.
Two cautions. First, the list changes: seafood was removed the day after the announcement. Second, a category being on the list does not mean every product in it is tariffed. Only the specific tariff items are, and only when the product is US-made. When in doubt, search the product in the official list.
How to tell where a product is made
Origin claims on Canadian packaging are voluntary, but if a company makes one, it has to meet a legal standard. Two agencies set the rules.
Non-food products (Competition Bureau)
- “Product of Canada” means the last substantial transformation of the product happened in Canada and at least 98% of the direct production costs were incurred in Canada.
- “Made in Canada” means the last substantial transformation happened in Canada, at least 51% of the direct costs were Canadian, and the label carries a qualifier such as “Made in Canada with imported parts.”
Food (Canadian Food Inspection Agency)
- “Product of Canada” means the processing and labour are Canadian and all or virtually all of the major ingredients are Canadian.
- “Made in Canada” means the last substantial transformation happened in Canada. It must carry a qualifier, such as “Made in Canada from domestic and imported ingredients.”
What the other labels tell you
- “Made in USA” or “Product of USA” means the product can be on Canada’s list. Check the category above.
- “Imported by” or “Distributed by” plus a Canadian address tells you who brought it in, not where it was made. Look for a separate country-of-origin line.
- No origin claim at all does not mean imported. The claims are optional. Many Canadian-made products carry none.
- A “tariffed” shelf tag is a retailer’s choice, not a regulated label. The Bank of Canada found that products with visible “tariffed” banners rose more in price than identical tariffed products without them.
What happened to prices last time
Canada ran a similar exercise in 2025, with 25% counter-tariffs from March 4 to September 1. The Bank of Canada studied what it did to store prices, and the results are the best guide to what to expect this time.
- Products under counter-tariffs ended up about 6% more expensive than comparable products that were not tariffed.
- About one-quarter of the 25% tariff showed up in retail prices. Importers and retailers absorbed the rest.
- The measures added roughly 0.3 percentage points to consumer price inflation.
- Prices peaked about three months in.
- After the counter-tariffs were lifted, prices fell back quickly. For groceries and appliances, the reversal was nearly complete within three months.
The takeaway for a shopper: partial, gradual and, if the measures are lifted, reversible. Not a price shock. The Bank said on September 2 that the new tariffs and counter-tariffs “could feed into consumer prices over time.” Its own data says “over time” means months, and “feed into” means a fraction of the rate.
What it means for a household budget
Groceries
Grocery prices were up 3.1% over the year to July. On $1,000 a month, that is about $370 more a year than last year. That number is the whole year, not only tariffs, and it is the one worth tracking month over month, because it makes the swaps that matter obvious. Hardbacon’s Budget Tracker does that in a Grocery line of its own. It is free with the newsletter (Save Money Interest), and the signup is at the bottom of this page.
The Canadian dollar
Anything priced in US dollars costs more when the loonie is weak: travel, US online orders, some electronics and software subscriptions. That is true tariff or not. The Bank of Canada’s daily rate is the reference for what a US dollar costs today.
Interest rates
Tariffs affect what the Bank of Canada thinks about inflation, but the policy rate only moves on its eight decision dates a year. On a hold, variable mortgages, lines of credit and the banks’ prime rate stay where they are. On a cut, variable rates fall within days and savings rates drift down over weeks. On a hike, the reverse. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the decision itself. If your mortgage renews in the next year, the offer you get depends more on the lender than on the Bank. Today’s best mortgage rates show the spread between lenders.
The cost you control
You cannot set tariffs or the exchange rate. You can set your bank fees. When Hardbacon compared the big banks’ plan pages in May 2026, a typical chequing account ran $16 to $17 a month, about $200 a year, while several Canadian banks offered no-fee accounts with unlimited transactions. The chequing account comparator lists the conditions side by side. The same goes for where your savings sit: the gap between the best and worst savings account rates is wider than any tariff effect on your grocery bill.
If your job is in an exposed sector
The sectors hit hardest by the US tariffs are steel, aluminum, lumber and, since August, dairy, furniture and clothing. In Québec, the exposure runs mostly through aluminum, forestry, dairy and aerospace rather than autos.
Ottawa has extended its temporary Employment Insurance measures for tariff-affected workers. The waived one-week waiting period and the rule that lets you receive EI before using up severance now run until October 10, 2027. The extra 20 weeks of regular benefits for long-tenured workers runs until June 2027. A new measure for workers who left a job voluntarily in recent months was announced with the August 25 package; its details were still to come at the time of writing. The current rules are on canada.ca, and Québec’s business-facing programs are on quebec.ca.
FAQ
Do tariffs raise prices right away?
No. In 2025, prices on tariffed products rose gradually and peaked about three months after the counter-tariffs started. Importers pass on part of the cost over time, not all of it on day one.
Are Canadian products more expensive because of US tariffs?
Not at a Canadian checkout. US tariffs are paid by US importers on goods leaving Canada. They can cost Canadian jobs and weaken the dollar, but they do not add to the price of a Canadian product sold in Canada.
Do counter-tariffs apply to online orders from the US?
Yes. The Canada Border Services Agency applies the surtax to personal imports as well as commercial ones, including parcels that come by mail or courier and shipments small enough to be under the usual duty-free threshold. If the product is US-made and on the list, the surtax is charged at the border and usually shows up as a fee from the carrier.
Should I stock up before prices rise?
That is your call, and the data can inform it. The 2025 experience says increases were partial (about a quarter of the tariff rate), gradual (peaking at three months) and reversible when measures ended. Stocking up costs storage space and cash today against a price rise that may be small.
Does this affect my mortgage?
Only indirectly. Tariffs shape the Bank of Canada’s inflation outlook, and the Bank sets the policy rate that variable mortgages follow. Fixed rates follow bond yields. Neither moves because a tariff was announced; they move on decision dates and market days.
Does Québec pay more?
Differently, not more. The counter-measures apply to the same US-made products in every province. Where Québec differs is on the export side: its exposure to the US tariffs runs through aluminum, forestry, dairy and aerospace rather than the auto sector.
The short version
Check the label before you blame the tariffs. If it is not made in the US, the counter-measures did not touch it. Track your grocery line, not the headlines. And put your effort where it moves the needle: the fees and rates you choose. For what changes from one month to the next, the Hardbacon monthly email covers it, and it comes with the free Budget Tracker (Save Money Interest). The signup is just below.
Hardbacon may earn a commission when you click links to financial products on our site. This article is educational and does not constitute financial advice.
Sources
- Finance Canada, List of products from the United States subject to counter-tariffs effective September 8, 2026, updated August 26, 2026.
- Finance Canada, Canada announces targeted countermeasures and substantive support for workers and businesses, August 25, 2026.
- Finance Canada, Support for Canadian workers and businesses affected by US tariffs, August 2026.
- Canada Border Services Agency, Customs Notice 26-23, United States Surtax Order (2026), September 7, 2026.
- Bank of Canada, Interest rate announcement, September 2, 2026.
- Bank of Canada, Cavallo, Kostyshyna, Kryvtsov and Vieyra, How Canada’s counter-tariffs impacted consumer prices, May 2026.
- Bank of Canada, One year later: assessing the impact of US trade restrictions on Canadian industries, Monetary Policy Report, April 2026.
- Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, July 2026, The Daily, August 17, 2026.
- Competition Bureau, “Product of Canada” and “Made in Canada” claims.
- Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Canadian food: origin claims.
- Hicks Morley, Federal government announces counter-tariffs and $7.5 billion support package, August 26, 2026 (EI end dates).
- The Globe and Mail, Already beset by tariffs, Quebec braces for another big trade hit, August 2026 (Québec sector exposure).
